I've already wrote about russian Northern Sea Route
Now russian propaganda media "rossiyskaya gazeta" corresponds:
"The 2025 total is 37.04 million tons", the Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. Furthermore, the volume of transit container cargo increased 2.6-fold, reaching a record 400,000 tons, according to Maria Polyakova, head of the Digital Transformation and Sustainable Development department at the Federal Autonomous Institution "Vostokgosplan."
According to her, in 2025, hydrocarbons—liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil, and petroleum products—accounted for 86%, while containers and general cargo accounted for 11%. Large domestic cabotage (Murmansk-Vladivostok, including continental Russia) is practically not transported via the NSR.
The NSR is the world's shortest route from Europe to Asia, running through the Arctic zone and part of the Pacific Ocean. It is entirely under Russian control. Compared to 2014, cargo traffic along this route has increased more than ninefold, reaching 3.98 million tons. Compared to 2024, there has been a slight decline (0.36 million tons). Experts attribute this to sanctions, which have only become more stringent in recent years. However, cargo traffic along the NSR is still lagging far behind the original plan. Even after all the adjustments to the route's capacity, it was expected to handle up to 80 million tons in 2024, up to 150 million tons by 2030, and up to 220 million tons by 2035. The main shortfall was due to the postponement of oil, gas, and coal mining projects, as well as LNG production facilities. Furthermore, US sanctions were imposed on the latter, significantly hindering the export of products from already operational facilities.
During the same time, their main competitor (as they consider it) the Suez Canal transported 522 million tons - 14 times more. And this is solely due to the activity of Yemen's Houthis in the Red Sea. In 2023, during "peacetime," the Suez Canal transported up to 1.5 trillion tons of various cargo - 42 times more!
During 2025 only LNG-ships carried 30.627 million ton (MT), container ships - 72.453 MT, tankers - 246.851 MT...
"russian ivan" is made to be proud of his icebreakers, emphasizing their "exceptionality", but no one tells to "russian Ivan" how much this greatness costs him - the Rosatomflot enterprise is entirely owned by the russian tsar and is not obligated to report on the volume of profits or losses to anyone except the tsar.
Why don't we take a look at the 2024 results from the official website of this department?
In 2024, it amounted to almost 37.9 million tons, more than 1.6 million tons more than last year.
The Rosatom State Corporation summarized the cargo traffic along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2024: cargo traffic amounted to 37,893,531.9 tons. This is almost 37.9 million tons, exceeding the previous record by more than 1.6 million tons.
Invariably, on the anniversary, there are victorious reports about new records, emphasizing the significance of the visit of the tsar himself😃
The 65th anniversary of the nuclear icebreaker fleet was not only a year of further cargo transportation records. In January, we laid down the keel of the icebreaker Leningrad, and in November, we launched the Chukotka. The significance of both events for the country was underscored by the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In 2024, a record number of transit voyages were made – 92 – and a record for transit cargo was set – over 3 million tons. This is almost one and a half times more than in 2023.
It's a pity there isn't a single number that's a multiple of 65🤔 But!☝️
With the support of specialists from the Federal State Budgetary Institution "GlavSevmorput," the largest container ship in history (ICE 1, length 294 meters, draft 12.3 meters, cargo capacity 4,843 TEU) navigated the Northern Sea Route in 2024. The vessel crossed the Northern Sea Route on September 11 near Cape Zhelaniya and exited the NSR on September 17 near Cape Dezhnev—the vessel completed the entire voyage in less than six days.
The largest container ship in history! WOW!😯
But what do we know about this type of vessels?
As we can see, Panamax class vessels with a declared capacity of 5,000 TEU are already quite outdated. The new Panamax ships can hold up to 15,000, but even that isn't a world record. For example, 20,000 TEU or more are quite typical for Suezmax-class container ships.
They also wrote that 11% of the cargo transported consisted of containers and general cargo. Almost all of them were transported by the nuclear-powered lighter carrier Sevmorput. Her capacity only 1336 TEU.
But that's not all! Let's look at map
It's Kara sea
Here locates Ob'-Yenisei bank with depth around 7-8 meters
The 2025 navigation season confirmed that the Yenisei Gulf is a zone of constant risk and continuous excavation.
According to the latest sounding data (PRIP Zapad 2025), the situation at the Yenisei River bar is a roller coaster: Without human intervention, the bar (the point where the river meets the sea) can drop to 7.4–8.1 meters. This is the depth of a river tram, not a sea tanker.
After dredger operations (like the Yenisei-204 in 2025), the depth is maintained at 10.6–11.8 meters. Minimum draft of obsolete (5000 TEU) Panamax is 12.04 meters.
Over a distance of just a couple of cable lengths (about 400 meters), the depth can jump from 10.8 m to 7.4 m. This is due to the deposits of sand and silt that the river carries into the bay.
The Yenisei is Russia's deepest river, and it functions like a giant conveyor belt for sand. A single storm in the Kara Sea can displace sand and bury a newly dug channel. Captains receive operational alerts (ORI): "At such-and-such a sounding, a depth of 9.3 meters was detected instead of 11 meters."
Ice-class tankers transporting oil from the Sever Bay terminal or products from Dudinka have a draft of approximately 11.5 to 11.8 meters. This means they pass the bar "on their bellies," sometimes with less than half a meter under their keels.
In 2025, an entire flotilla of dredgers was deployed on the Yenisei.
More than 56,000 cubic meters of soil were planned to be removed from the shallows and the bar alone. The main goal is to ensure the passage of ships to Dudinka (Norilsk Nickel's port), where the maximum permitted draft is currently fixed at 11.8 meters. If the depth drops by even 20 cm, tankers will have to be underloaded, leading to losses amounting to millions of dollars.
The depth variations on the Yenisei Bank are a chaos that excavators are trying to control. Just because you see a depth of 15 meters on the map doesn't mean you'll be able to navigate it. You need to check the latest soundings for the current week. A few meters of error here isn't just about running aground; it could block the only outlet for the region's entire Arctic export pipeline.
Over the next five years, the total volume of dredging in the Northern Sea Route (NSR, Northern Sea Route) alone will amount to 60 million cubic meters...
...in 2026–2030, the projected volumes of maintenance dredging alone exceed 25.49 million cubic meters (in 2026—3.93 million cubic meters, in 2027—4.78 million cubic meters, in 2028—5.09 million cubic meters, in 2029—5.75 million cubic meters, in 2030—5.79 million cubic meters)...
...in projects already underway, the volumes of capital dredging will amount to 4.4 million cubic meters, and in prospective projects—almost 30 million cubic meters.
"This is only for maintaining the facilities in working order, but there are also major dredging volumes for the construction of new port facilities."
"That means, over the next five years, in total, in the NSR waters alone, we're approaching a volume of 60 million cubic meters. These are colossal volumes that we need to accomplish," noted the head of the Hydrographic Enterprise.
Now let's estimate the cost of dredging alone:
The cost of dredging for individual projects in the western Arctic and the Baltic has increased almost fourfold in 2023–2024, reaching 3,000 rubles per cubic meter of excavated soil of 2–3 complexity categories.
In 2020, the approximate cost of extracting 1 cubic meter was approximately 625 rubles.:
As of August 11, 2020, over 1 million cubic meters of bottom sediment had already been removed.
The work will be carried out in two stages and will be completed in 2022.
The total dredging volume will be approximately 60 million cubic meters.
Funding for the reconstruction work will amount to 37.5 billion rubles.
Based on the now clearly outdated 3,000 per cubic meter, we find that the cost of dredging will be around 180 billion rubles, which is currently more than 2 billion dollars🤔
Who's funding this? Here's the answer:
The cost of the LNG terminal is 95.7 billion rubles, and 70% of the project is financed by the Russian state budget.
In other words, russian Ivan will pay around 1.5 billion dollars from his own pocket. Isn't that a reason to be proud?🤔
Mikhail Mishustin approved a plan for the development of the Northern Sea Route through 2035... The total funding for the plan's activities is nearly 1.8 trillion rubles.
Average annual expences will about 138,46 billion rubles (1.733B$) since 2022 till 2035.
BTW The Ukrainian war at that moment goes around half a year, blitzkrieg didn't happened but they believed that victory was already close and everyone would soon start playing by their rules
Reader, perhabs you don't understand all these numbers without comparison🤔 Well, why woldn't compare with this?
Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port (NCSP) PJSC's net profit under RAS increased by 4.5% year-on-year in January-September 2025 to RUB 35.434 billion (442 million $), according to the company's report.
Revenue amounted to RUB 27.384 billion, up 6.7% compared to 2024.
Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port is one of Russia's largest stevedoring groups. The holding company's assets are located in Novorossiysk (Krasnodar Krai), Primorsk (Leningrad Region), and Baltiysk (Kaliningrad Region). Transneft is NCSP's largest shareholder, with the state owning 20%.
Let's look at Novorossiysk...
The Port of Novorossiysk handled 80.3 million tons of cargo in the first half of the year, topping the ranking of Russian seaports by cargo turnover.
...Primorsk...
...and Baltiysk
Very important numbers for our comparison
JSC Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port (NCSP Group) is the third largest port operator in Europe and Russia's largest commercial sea port operator...
In 2017, the company oversaw a cargo turnover of 143.5 million tons. The company handled about 18% of total cargo turnover in Russia in 2017.
They tell us that the cargo turnover of these three ports in 2017 was 3.8 times greater than the current cargo turnover of the Northern Sea Route. Or only one Novorossiysk port cargo turnover more than 2 times greater than NSR
Last year, the Murmansk Commercial Sea Port handled 9.73 million tons of cargo.
This figure is 30% lower than the 2024 result, when the port’s cargo turnover amounted to 13.97 million tons.
For now on I hope you understand the numbers which I tell much better🤔
And with all this understanding we can turn back to the funding of dredging on Ob'-Yenisey bank
...in 2026–2030, the projected volumes of maintenance dredging alone exceed 25.49 million cubic meters (in 2026—3.93 million cubic meters, in 2027—4.78 million cubic meters, in 2028—5.09 million cubic meters, in 2029—5.75 million cubic meters, in 2030—5.79 million cubic meters) The cost of dredging for individual projects in the western Arctic and the Baltic has increased almost fourfold in 2023–2024, reaching 3,000 rubles per cubic meter of excavated soil of 2–3 complexity categories
2026—3.93 million cubic meters - 11.79 billion (around 149.24 M$), in 2027—4.78 million cubic meters - 14.34 B (181.5M$), in 2028—5.09 million cubic meters - 15.27 (193.3M$), in 2029—5.75 million cubic meters - 17.25 (218.35M$) and in 2030—5.79 million cubic meters - 17.37 B (219.87M$).
That is, the costs of annual dredging operations alone in the Ob-Yenisei Bank area will amount to between a third and almost half of the profits of russia's largest cargo operator. All this is only to make the passage of gas carriers with a relatively small draft suitable. And all this, in fact, comes from the pocket of the average russian taxpayer.
By the way, this is not the NSR's bottleneck; the Sannikov Strait is about 13 meters deep, and dredging here could result in far more daunting figures🤔
The depth of the fairway of the Dmitry Laptev Strait is even shallower - about 8 meters.
But of course, dredging is far from the only price to pay for the irrepressible pride of the russian ivan!
So is this a lot or a little?
Look!
Regions where the birth rate in 2023 was below the Russian average will receive additional funds to implement birth rate-boosting programs. Approximately 75 billion rubles (0,949B$) will be allocated to 41 regions between 2025 and 2030.
Quite comparable order of numbers🤔 And it's for 5 years!
Samolet has asked the government for a 50 billion ruble (625M$) preferential loan. The developer explained its move by citing the need to optimize financing to avoid rising real estate prices. RBC has reviewed a letter from Samolet CEO Anna Akinshina to the government requesting a 50 billion ruble preferential loan for up to three years. The company's CEO sent the letter to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in mid-January. An RBC source in the government confirmed the developer's request.
Samolet is a Russian development company. It is the largest developer in Russia (as of 2025) and the second largest developer in Moscow (as of 2025), with over 5 million square meters of housing under construction. In 2024, the company commissioned over 1.3 million square meters of real estate.Some more numbers for comparison (PRESS if you wondering)
Samolet topped the Forbes Russia 2024 Confidence Rating of Russian Developers
According to preliminary data, the Russian federal budget for 2025 was executed with a deficit of 5.645 trillion rubles (71 billion $), or 2.6% of GDP, the Ministry of Finance reported.
Revenues last year increased by 1.6% compared to 2024, reaching 37.284 trillion rubles (471.9B$).
The volume of federal budget expenditures for this period increased year-on-year by 6.8% to 42.928 trillion rubles (543.4B$).
I recommend paying special attention to this:
Oil and gas revenues decreased year-on-year by 23.8% to 8.477 trillion rubles, primarily due to a decline in the average oil price. However, their revenues remained above the baseline.
Baseline oil and gas revenues amounted to 8.393 trillion rubles.
Additional oil and gas revenues to the federal budget totaling 84 billion rubles will be credited to the National Welfare Fund (NWF) in 2026. In the fall, the Ministry of Finance estimated the potential additional oil and gas revenues that could be credited to the fund in 2026 at 78.3 billion rubles.
Of course not all very bad!
"In 2025, subsoil users in the Magadan Region produced 55.1 tons of gold and 312.5 tons of silver. Gold production increased by one ton compared to the same period last year."
The gold price reached the mark of 176297 for 1 kilogram which means that magadanians mined gold worth about 9.7 billion dollars or 777 billion rubles
But this is "gross". To calculate "net", we need to use the method AISC
AISC covers a wide range of costs:
Exploration and study costs (sustaining): Expenditures necessary to sustain current operations, not for expansion.
Direct production costs: Labour, energy, consumables, and royalties.
Sustaining capital expenditures: Investments required to maintain production levels, such as equipment replacements and mine development
Administrative costs: Corporate overheads related to running the business.
Environmental and closure costs: Reclamation and mine closure provisions.
OPEX operating costs alone (diesel fuel, spare parts, explosives, chemicals) amount to no less than 330 billion, and the purchase of new bulldozers, drilling rigs, and technical support will cost another 115 billion. Without taking into account taxes, salaries, etc., 770 billion has already been deflated by half as minimum.
And almost all these money were burned on Ukrainian War
In 2025, units of the Special Operations Center "Alpha" of the Security Service of Ukraine inflicted massive losses on the Russian air defense system. The total cost of the enemy's air defense assets destroyed and disabled is estimated at approximately $4 billion.
Thus, the "russian ivan" did not receive a single penny of profit from the Magadan gold.
I think this should be given attention too:
...foreign minister claimed last week that Europe has imported more from Russia during the war than it has spent supporting Ukraine.
"During the same period, we have imported Russian oil and gas to an amount of €201 billion," Stenergard said. "And then, if you add the other imports, then the total is €311 billion."
Europe's imports from Russia have plunged by around 89% since the start of the invasion, according to Eurostat, but remain substantial.
Research from the independent Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) indicates the EU's member states have purchased more than €216 billion in Russian fossil fuels — including oil, refined products, pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) — since February 2022.
The EU is, however, still the largest buyer of LNG. Its top five importers — Hungary, Slovakia, France, Belgium and Romania — paid a combined €938 million for Russian fossil fuels in the month of October 2025 alone, CREA reports.
And for comparison, the entire Moscow budget for 2025 was approximately 5.121 trillion rubles (64.82B$) in revenue and 5.583 trillion (70.67M$) in expenditures, deficit is 461.1 billion (5.738B$). This means that Moscow accounts for essentially one-eighth of all of Russia.
BTW Enacted State Fiscal Year (SFY) New York State Budget for one fiscal year (April 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026) is $254.3 Billion
Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies to the European Union (EU) in 2025 exceeded pipeline supplies for the first time, according to data from the European think tank Bruegel. Russian LNG exports to the EU last year totaled 19.9 billion cubic meters, while pipeline supplies totaled 18.1 billion cubic meters.
All thanks to those billions from russian ivan's pocket spended on dredging on Ob'-Yenisei bank
As we know, 56% of all transportation along the NSR is LNG: In 2022 it was worth 15 billion euros, in 2023 - 8.1, in 2024 - 7.2 and in 2025 - 6.8. Summary - 37.8 billion euros or aproximately 44,5B$
Should "ivan" be happy? Let's see🤔
The foreign shareholders of the Arctic LNG 2 project—France's TotalEnergies, China's CNPC and CNOOC, and a consortium of Japan's Mitsui and JOGMEC—have declared force majeure regarding their participation in the project. This could result in Arctic LNG 2 losing its long-term LNG export contracts, and NOVATEK will be forced to finance the project independently. Meanwhile, the Chinese and Japanese companies have requested US authorities to exempt LNG supplies from sanctions.
Each of them holds a 10% stake in Arctic LNG 2. NOVATEK itself owns 60%. Each shareholder has the right to receive LNG in quantities proportional to their stake: NOVATEK receives 12 million tons per year, while the foreign shareholders receive 2 million tons each.
It means only 60% from 44.5B$ - 26.9B$ will remain in russia.
The cost of the project itself is about 25 billion and it still needs to be recouped
The cost of NOVATEK's Arctic LNG 2 project has increased to approximately $25 billion from the initially announced $21.3 billion.
Of course, the cost of excavating just one sandbank isn't the whole story!
For a single icebreaker, fully loading the RITM-200 reactors costs approximately 5-6 billion rubles (62,5-75M$) This is the cost of the fuel assemblies only (active zone)!
The RITM-200 nuclear reactor, with a capacity of 174 MW, is the company's key scientific and technological innovation. The RITM-200 is a twin-reactor system with reactors producing 175 MW of thermal power each. This is greater than the capacity of the KLT reactors used in modern nuclear icebreakers (they have 140-150 MW). At the same time, the RITM-200 is almost twice as light and compact, requiring less material consumption and occupying less space on the vessel, making it more cost-effective. The RITM-200 will use fuel enriched to 20% uranium-235. It will be refueled every seven years, with a planned service life of 40 years.
According to Rosatomflot procurement documents, the maintenance of one floating technical base (FTB) (crew, special communications, radiation monitoring systems, electricity, and routine maintenance) costs approximately 450-600 million rubles per year. There are two such ships (Imandra and Lotta). These are essentially floating nuclear facilities with spent fuel pools and high-precision cranes.
"Rossita" nuclear waste cargo vessel
When the fuel is unloaded from the reactor, it can't be transported directly to the Urals — it's too hot (both in terms of temperature and radiation). It must be stored in special storage pools at the Murmansk base for 3-5 years. Based on the volume of fuel for one icebreaker, annual storage at the base costs the state approximately 120-150 million rubles. If an icebreaker operates for 40 years and undergoes five refuelings during that time, a "debt" constantly accumulates in the pools, which Ivan spends decades paying off.
Next comes transportation to Mayak in TUK-120 containers. One such container costs hundreds of millions. Several such "barrels" are needed to transport the fuel from one icebreaker. This isn't a regular freight train. It's a train with escort cars, security, and special platforms.
The Mayak plant charges a fee for receiving and chemical processing. The full cycle of spent nuclear fuel removal from one icebreaker (a one-time operation after the cooling period) costs approximately 250–300 million rubles per year.
Even if all the icebreakers stopped tomorrow, he would still be paying for the pumps, security, and personnel at this base for at least another 15-20 years, until the last assembly was shipped to Mayak, after which he would have to pay for storage at the plant.
Mayak is a state monopoly. The rates for receiving spent nuclear fuel from icebreakers are a commercial secret, but experts estimate it amounts to hundreds of millions of rubles per train. And this money is spent not on development, but on maintaining the safety of a facility that will continue to emit radiation for hundreds of years after the Arctic LNG project becomes a rusty pile of iron.
If we have, say, seven nuclear icebreakers in service (a mix of old and new), then the total "nuclear bill" for the country is approximately 8-9 billion rubles (100-110M$) annually. And that's just the "nuclear portion"! We don't include diesel fuel for auxiliary diesel generators (which are on the icebreaker), oil, food for the crew, helicopter support, and general overhead costs of Rosatom's Moscow office.
On April 23, 2020, State Contract No. 213/3133-D was signed for the construction of the lead nuclear icebreaker of Project 10510, "Lider". The contract price is 199,578,174,200 rubles (almost 2.5B$).
For comparison
The total cost of building a bridge from Sakhalin to the mainland across the Nevelskoy Strait is 600 billion rubles, and without access roads, it will cost "approximately" 300 billion rubles. Sakhalin Region Governor Valery Limarenko stated this in an interview with RBC.
The bridge's location is projected to be somewhere around here. This is the shortest distance between the mainland and the island.
Let me just remind you that the cost of building a bridge to occupied Crimea has increased several times.
Project cost estimates have already increased sixfold since March, as you may recall, starting from a modest 50 billion rubles.
The total cost of the Crimean Bridge project is 227.922 billion rubles.
Do you think this is an accident or an exception?
January 17, 2024. The cost of constructing a bridge across the Lena River in Yakutia will be approximately 130 billion rubles, with the work scheduled to take five years. Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin announced this at a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and members of the government.
September 30, 2025. The total cost of constructing the Lena Bridge is 174.8 billion rubles.
Let's be patient and watch. I assure you, there are still some exciting events ahead!😃
A russian ivan would probably really like to go on a cruise. What's the deal with cruise prices?
Well! The cost starts from 3.5 million russian rubles (43+ K$) for one person🤔 Who can afford such a luxurious trip? Let's take a look at the salary levels: net median salary in Moscow in 2025 was about 110000 russian rubles (1375$), in Chukotka region about 172000 rubles (2150$). It's worth remembering that the cost of living in Chukotka is significantly higher than in Moscow. And by a number of quality-of-life indicators, Chukotka is significantly worse.
One liter of gas in Moscow costs about 63 rubles, in Chukotka - 76 rubles
And what it means? The median Moscow russian ivan needs at least 31 monthly median salaries, while a russian ivan from Chukotka needs at least 20 monthly salaries. This is assuming they eat nothing at all and don't spend their money on anything else.
What should I say in the end? Make your own conclusions🤔
Finally let's be familiar with this propagandist reaction on falling of cargo traffic volume
The decline in freight traffic along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2025 is insignificant and, on the contrary, demonstrates that the transport artery continues to operate normally. Such fluctuations are natural for any economic system. This opinion was expressed by Alexey Fadeyev, Doctor of Economics and Professor at the Graduate School of Industrial Management at Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, in an interview with TASS.
Previously, media outlets cited expert estimates and commentary indicating that cargo traffic along the Northern Sea Route had decreased by 2.3% by the end of 2025, with analysts not yet seeing any signs of an increase in volumes in 2026.
"Let's look at how much cargo traffic has actually decreased – 2.3%. In percentage terms, this is only 1/50th of the total cargo volume. This is an absolutely insignificant decrease, considering that the NSR, as part of the Trans-Arctic Transport Corridor (TTC), is a living economic system. Like other sectors of the economy, it is subject to various macroeconomic factors, including changes in sales markets and scheduled repairs at NSR plants, which is normal in any situation and at virtually any time," noted A. Fadeev.
They calm the Russian Ivan so that he doesn't think that the money taken out of his pocket is going to a good cause.😀
According to the expert, the dynamics themselves confirm that the system is evolving and not static. He believes that a sharp increase in freight volumes is not expected in 2026, as the key projects supporting the further development of the NSR and the Third Transport Ring are long-term and strategic in nature. He named Vostok Oil and Baimsky Mining and Processing Plant among such initiatives.
"By 2030, our goal is to reach approximately 109 million tons of freight traffic. I believe there is no reason to abandon our plans yet. It's perfectly normal for them to be adjusted depending on the foreign policy situation, so any decline shouldn't lead anyone to hasty conclusions about the Arctic's inability to cope with something," Fadeyev emphasized.
I suggest we remember this number and return to it in 2030🤔
For now, I'll remind you of other forecasts.