As likes to say so-called 'great geostrategist', also known as russian czar, playing the role of 'president' to create the appearance of democracy for Western countries: "Is fecit cui prodest"
"But sanctions are no longer enough for the Anglo-Saxons. They turned to sabotage - incredibly, but true - by organizing explosions on the international gas pipelines of the Nord Stream, which run along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. In fact, they have begun to destroy the pan-European energy infrastructure. It is obvious to everyone who benefits from this. Those who benefited did so, of course."
Well, probably this statement also relevant to other situations?🤔
Let's look at so-called Northern Sea Route
in the official government media "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" it is written
Freight traffic along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) this year will grow to a record level - 36 million tons, 34.7 million tons have already been transported, the Ministry of Eastern Development told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. Last year there were 34 million tons. The target for last year and this year is 32 million tons. The plan has been exceeded, but next year cargo traffic should increase to 80 million tons.
🤨M-hm...🤔
Annother quote from same source:
Over the past 25 years, ice cover in the Arctic has decreased threefold. Ice-class vessels begin navigation along the NSR as early as February - March. The route is in demand not only by Russian, but also by foreign carriers, because only two routes connect Europe and Asia by water: through the Suez Canal and along the northern seas. According to Deputy Prime Minister and Plenipotentiary Representative of the President of the Russian Federation in the Far Eastern Federal District Yuri Trutnev, the Suez Canal is less reliable due to its narrow passage. In short, an economic-geographical movement upward to the Russian North is necessary.
🤨M-hm...🤔
Speaking apout person of Yuri Trutnev we shouldn't to forget, that he regularly visits the zone of the so-called 'special military operation' - this is the name given to the war unleashed by Moscow in Ukraine - to provide support to 'our guys'.
More useful information about him talks to us Aleksei Navalny, which was killed in polar prison by order of putin (switch on english subtitles)
Nearby Trutnev on the picture is the 'Arctic blogger number 1', as he calls himself, member of so-called 'russian geographical society' (added in Canadian sanction list) Bogdan Bulychev...
...who also states that he is the holder of a Guinness record, which is very controversial, given the fact that there is no mention of him on the official website of the book of records. He also often travels to the 'special military operation' zone for the same purpose
In 'peaceful' times, between these trips, he talks about how beautiful his country is, led by the 'still young and full of strength' putin, which, of course, 'no have alternative', although he declares his 'complete apoliticality'.
He also calls himself 'Ambassador of Arctic', which, combined with the fact of an undisguised strong friendship with the president’s representative in the russian Far East and others, leads us to believe that he is tasked with popularizing the Arctic, including NSR. For this purpose, beautiful videos are made about car racing against nuclear icebreakers
Of course on behalf of his master😀
With his 'complete apoliticality' and indefatigable canine devotion, this citizen has earned himself personal restrictive measures from the United States - https://t.me/bogdee/761. What an unpleasant surprise! And meeting US ambassador in so-called 'russia' Sullivan didn't help - https://t.me/bogdee/757 And these people teach us democracy!🤣
OK, enought with these persons!
Let's compare the number of ships and the total tonnage passing along these ship routes!
The Suez Canal in 2023 reached the shipping volume of about 26,000 vessels with a total tonnage of about 1,600 million tons
According another source number of ships passing through the Suez Canal in 2022 was around 22000
What do we have with Northern Sea? Russian ministry of transportation reports:
The volume of cargo transportation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2020 increased to 33 million tons compared to 31.5 million tons a year earlier, the state corporation Rosatom (it owns a fleet of nuclear icebreakers) reported.
“In 2020, cargo turnover along the Northern Sea Route amounted to 32.97 million tons. This is almost 1.5 million tons more than in 2019, when 31.5 million tons were transported,” the report notes.
The target for the federal project 'Northern Sea Route' regarding the volume of cargo transportation along the Northern Sea Route in 2020 was 29 million tons. The goal of the project is to develop the Northern Sea Route and increase freight traffic along it to 80 million tons in 2024.
Thus, the tonnage transported through the Suez Canal is 46 times higher than the cargo turnover of the NSR.
And as we can see, russian authorities planned 80 million tons for 2024 back in 2021. But there seem to be no objective reasons for the increase🤔
A total of 8329 separate voyages took place on the NSR in 2016–2019...
During the four years the cargo volume on the NSR increased from 7.5 million tons in 2016–31.5 million tons in 2019, a 4-fold increase. Most of the cargo was for export to the European market consisting of liquid hydrocarbons supplied by two natural resource projects in the Ob Bay – LNG and gas condensate from the Yamal LNG plant at the port of Sabetta and crude oil from the Arctic Gate terminal at Cape Kammeniy (Novy Port) further south in the Ob Bay. In 2019, 254 shipments of LNG were brought from Sabetta by 23 LNG carriers to foreign markets and 41 shipments of gas condensate by 6 tankers. In addition comes transport of prefabricated LNG modules for the construction of the Yamal LNG plant, delivered to the port of Sabetta in 2016 and 2017.
It is important to note that the majority - up to 87% of traffic - were domestic voyages:
Domestic shipping was the dominant type of shipping activity on the NSR with 87% of all voyages in 2016, 92% in 2017, 84% in 2018 and 76% in 2019...
International transit voyages via the NSR were only 8 in 2016, 12 in 2017, 17 in 2018 and 14 in 2019; or 0.4–0.8% of all the voyages during each year... Of the 51 international transit voyages during the four years, 47 carried cargo totaling 980,676 tons
By other words, International carriers were not particularly interested in the Northern Sea Route🤔 But suddenly cargo turnover is expected to more than double in 2024. Doesn't this seem strange?
Due to the constraints of Just-In-Time, it is not really interesting for most container-shipping-companies to go through the NSR. They prefer regular routes where they can load and unload in several ports. Whereas in the Arctic, there are no ports with large hinterlands that would be available for them to increase traffic.
“For bulk shipping working on a tramp ad hoc basis, it is very difficult to recoup the investment if the carrier is not sure it will be able to sail regularly in Arctic waters. Running a high ice-class vessel in warmer waters is a waste of money since these ships are more expensive to buy and to run. Shipping companies thus prefer security through long-term service contracts, which are hard to get because the market is still limited", Lasserre says and adds:
“For these reasons, there is not going to be an explosion of traffic on the NSR with containerships, for now. Bulk and container ships are still going to need icebreaker-capacities to navigate in the Arctic. Maybe in 20 years, it may be different but for now, such vessels are needed. They are expensive to buy and to operate.”
Now let me remind you that in 2022 so-called 'russia' started hot phase of war in Ukraine, which has lasted since 2014, when so-called 'russia' first seized Crimea, and then, under the guise of “civilian” war, started a war in the Donbass and Lugansk region.
And on october 7, 2023, the largest terrorist attack in the history of Israel occurred. Teract was in the scale of full military operation and was planned by the so-called 'freedom fighters' of the so-called 'palestine', sponsored and supported by UNRWA and iranian ayatollas regime. In response to this, Israel started a war in the Gaza Strip, in response to which, in turn, a terrorist gang called the Houthis declared war on Israel and began to terrorize the international shipping route
It is also worth recalling that the Hamas, Hezbollah, Taliban, Palestinian Islamic jihad and the mentioned Houthis movements have a close connection with so-called 'russia'. For example, on October 26, almost 3 weeks later, a delegation from the 'political wing' of Hamas arrived in Moscow
And 24 february in moscow visited till 14 islamic radical terrorist groups, including listed above
To relatively briefly characterize the panopticon with which the Kremlin 'sniffed' (yes, like dogs😀), the Taliban are banned in so-called 'russia', what does not prevent them from coming to Moscow at an official invitation, and russian Minister of Foreign Affairs kalantaryan-lavrov calling them 'sane people' which was especially highlighted in the headlines of the russian propaganda media
According the same russian propaganda media these 'sane people' are going to bring back the practice of stoning women for adultery:
"We will soon introduce punishment for adultery. We will publicly flog women. We will publicly stone them to death."
Akhundzada also promised to make Sharia law work in Afghanistan. “I told the mujahideen that we are telling the West: we have been fighting against you for 20 years and we will fight for another 20 years and even more. This did not end [with the departure of US troops]. This does not mean that now we will just sit and drink tea. We will bring Sharia law to this land," he added.
Since coming to power in 2021, the Taliban have suspended classes for girls in secondary schools and girls in universities, banned the presence of women in universities, including faculty members, and ordered the suspension of women from work in all national and international non-governmental organizations.
And, of course, the Taliban are also in 'complete order' regarding Israel:
It became known that the leaders of the Taliban group (*terrorist organization banned in Russia) in connection with the events in Israel and the Gaza Strip appealed to the leaders of a number of countries in South-West Asia. The request from the Afghan Taliban* is the same: to allow their troops to enter Israel along the transport corridor to help the Palestinians take Jerusalem.
According to the latest data, a corresponding appeal was sent from Kabul to the governments of Iran, Iraq and Jordan.
😀
So! Let's get back to the ships!
The volume of general cargo, which among other things including containers, in 2022 was around 5 millions tons. To imagine the scale:
The Suez Canal Authority has shattered its record for the daily number of ships passing through the strategic waterway. On Wednesday, it handled a total of 87 vessels, easily surpassing the previous record of 75, which was set on February 6, 2019.
Vessels with a total tonnage of 4.8 million dwt traversed the waterway in both directions on Wednesday, including 38 from the north and 49 from the south. The ships that passed through the canal on Wednesday included 18 container ships, 26 bulkers, 18 large oil tankers, 10 gas carriers and 15 ships of other types.
The new record, coming six months after the giant boxship Ever Given went aground and blocked traffic along this critical maritime chokepoint, has validated SCA's desire to accelerate an expansion of the canal.
For simplicity, we take the very roughly calculated average tonnage of one ship (divide 4,8 megatons 87 ships) and multiply it by the number of container ships 18, we get about 993 tons. Perhabs it is average gross tonnage, then we need to get the approximate payload volume. According to very rough and not entirely correct estimates, this should amount to 700 tons. This means that the entire annual volume of container traffic along the Northern Sea Route can be transported through the Suez Canal in only one week.
Please forgive me for the illiterate, rough calculations. I am not an expert on ships, but I am sure the numbers given are as fair as possible in relation to the Northern Sea Route.
Since the beginning of the tragic events on October 7, about 110-120 container ships per day have passed through the Suez Canal. Since the beginning of 2024, more and more container ships have begun to sail through the Cape of Good Hope. Today, about 35 container ships a week pass through the canal, while through the Cape - 149:
The first observable decrease in weekly passages of the Canal for this segment occurred in the last weeks of November 2023. In total, weekly Container Ship traffic through the Suez Canal has decreased by almost 80% over the past thirteen weeks. Conversely, over 115 vessels in this segment have passed via the Cape of Good Hope per weedek on average since the beginning of 2024. At its peak so far, Container Ship traffic via the Cape totalled nearly 160 vessels in the first week of February – a 222.4% increase over the weekly average preceding the R Sea crisis.
Of course, not only container shipping suffered
Sad pictures. The Suez Canal handled 12-15% of global trade and 25-30% of container traffic. Now the end consumer of cheap chinese junk, for the most part adheres to primitive leftist views, is now forced to pay a little more out of their wallet than usual. He will undoubtedly blame America and its satellites for everything, while completely forgetting that most commercial ships, in particular the same container ships, are built in the evil-capitalist's shipyards of South Korea and Japan and engines for these ships also built in 'vile-capitalist' states, like Switzerland, Finland, Germany (both are members of NATO) and South Corea. But there is no need to know this, America and Israel are to blame for everything, calls for the destruction of which are written on the flags of the Ansar Allah movement, aka 'Houthis'😀 And muslim Egypt is suffering greatly from a lack of revenue, but this does not seem to bother the Iranian ayatollahs, who control their puppets from Ansar Allah
BTW, Cape of Good Hope is a territory of South Africa.
What is South Africa's position on Israel and so-called 'palestine'? Let's see!
On this picture we see the fourth president of SAR Jacob Zuma shaking hands with Ismail Haniyeh, far right - Mousa Abu Marzook. They are palestinian senior members of HAMAS
South Africa has no regrets about becoming the first country to file a lawsuit against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to end its “deadly and relentless genocidal bombardment” of Gaza.
This is according to Deputy President Paul Mashatile who attended a question and answer session in the National Council of Provinces on Tuesday.
Speaking in Parliament, Deputy President Mashatile said the United Nations estimates that more than 30 000 Palestinians, including over 10 000 children, have been killed.
“Over 70 000 have been injured while 10 000 are missing under rubble. This brings the number of civilian casualties to about 110 000, amounting to roughly 5% of Gaza's 2.3 million population. We will not condone genocide,” he told Members of Parliament.
The 'esteemed' vice president once again refers to 'the millions of billions' of victims of the 'unfortunate palestinians' provided to him by the Ministry of Health of the same Hamas. Right, those guys, who shakes hands with previous president. From now on all friends are gathered!😀
By the way, what about numbers of killed?
American jewish scientist Abraham Wyner reports:
If Hamas’ numbers are faked or fraudulent in some way, there may be evidence in the numbers themselves that can demonstrate it. While there is not much data available, there is a little, and it is enough: From Oct. 26 until Nov. 10, 2023, the Gaza Health Ministry released daily casualty figures that include both a total number and a specific number of women and children.
The first place to look is the reported “total” number of deaths. The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity, as the graph in Figure 1 reveals.
This regularity is almost surely not real. One would expect quite a bit of variation day to day. In fact, the daily reported casualty count over this period averages 270 plus or minus about 15%. This is strikingly little variation. There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less. Perhaps what is happening is the Gaza ministry is releasing fake daily numbers that vary too little because they do not have a clear understanding of the behavior of naturally occurring numbers. Unfortunately, verified control data is not available to formally test this conclusion, but the details of the daily counts render the numbers suspicious. Taken together, what does this all imply? While the evidence is not dispositive, it is highly suggestive that a process unconnected or loosely connected to reality was used to report the numbers. Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily. We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day. Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total. This explains all the data observed.
But, perhabs, SAR authorities (and left-wingers too) have no time for mathematical statistics, the laws of normal distribution, scatter, calculation errors, etc. For what? Moreover, the professor is Jewish! Can a Jew be trusted?😀 You won't achieve your goals this way!
Yes, but what is our goal?
Arctic shipping could be made profitable if shipping companies were interested, but that raises the question 'what kind of shipping company would perform in the Arctic segment'? But in the short term, most shipping companies are saying that for now, it is definitively not profitable, because of just-in-time constraints, and the need for very long-term contracts."
How to create demand for a service that is clearly not in demand? The russian military propaganda media 'Military Review' will help us here:
Naval exercises by South Africa and other countries near the Cape of Good Hope could completely cut off traffic between Asia and Europe.
Yemen's Houthi attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea, which intensified following retaliatory strikes on northern Yemen by US-led coalition forces, have sharply reduced maritime traffic along the shortest route between Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal. Yemeni rebels, who sided with Hamas immediately after the start of the IDF military operation, initially tried to attack only ships traveling to and from Israeli ports with drones and ballistic missiles.
However, now the leaders of the Islamist movement Ansar Allah have declared all Western ships in the Red Sea, both civilian and military, as targets. An exception was made only for Russian and Chinese merchant ships due to the fact that Moscow and Beijing openly condemn the aggressive actions of the United States and allies against Yemen.
🤣 red totalitary communist china and moscow (in the recent past, the capital of the largest communist empire, now very clearly gravitating towards its totalitarian past) condemn the aggressive actions of the United States and allies against Yemen!🤣
Watch carefully: The terrorist attack on October 7 is a 'fight for freedom', the war against terrorists is an act of aggression; declaring war on a country with which there are not even common borders under a flag with the inscription 'Death to America, Death to Israel' and sinking merchant ships is a 'fight for freedom', striking targets creating a terrorist threat is an 'act of aggression'. Don't get confused!🤣
Houthi rebels launched a series of anti-ship ballistic missiles at a Chinese-owned and -operated oil tanker, according to the U.S. Central Command, in a move that has angered Beijing.
This attack came despite the Houthis' previous assurances "they would not attack Chinese vessels" in the strategic waters of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden," CENTCOM said.
Undoubtedly, the Chinese do not recognize the blow to their trough, since this contradicts one of the 'unwritten communist laws': "We do not recognize it, which means it did not happen. This is necessary for our common cause"🤣
And communists and various kinds of terrorists (in fact, communists, if you look at their history, have always been terrorists) always have one common goal - to sow instability, so that in the resulting chaos, which the 'snickering bourgeoisie' are so afraid of, they can be an 'island of stability'
I'll continue to quote:
Thus, the aggressive actions of the United States and Great Britain in the Middle East region, the stated purpose of which was to “protect” maritime traffic in the Red Sea, as has happened many times before, led to the opposite result.
However, the alternative route may also become unsafe, some experts say. The Republic of South Africa, on the southern tip of which the Cape of Good Hope is located, strongly condemns the actions of the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip, where the IDF has been carrying out virtual genocide of Palestinians for four months. Earlier, South Africa filed a lawsuit at the International Court of Justice against Israel, accusing it of war crimes against the Palestinians.
At the end of February last year, a three-day naval exercise between the Chinese Navy, the South African National Defense Force and the Russian Navy took place in the Indian Ocean. Why not, for example, repeat similar exercises closer to the Cape of Good Hope, declaring this zone unsuitable for civilian, or indeed any, shipping during their conduct, as is required by international standards. Surely other countries not controlled by the United States, for example, members of the BRICS, could take part in the exercises, the purpose of which could be 'countering terrorism and illegal maritime traffic.' The main thing is that they last longer.
This will be a disaster primarily for Europe and other countries of the so-called collective West, and will also affect international trade, the supply of goods and hydrocarbons to the United States. Naval exercises by South Africa and other countries near the Cape of Good Hope could completely cut off traffic between Asia and Europe.
China, which accounts for the largest volume of maritime traffic previously passing through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, could easily take advantage of an alternative route for trade with Europeans along the Northern Sea Route. Moreover, this route, although not the most comfortable, is also shorter than through Suez.
But the Americans and EU countries, mired in Russophobia, will either have to incur colossal losses while finishing off their economies, or change their policy towards the Russian Federation. This, for now hypothetical, problem with many unknowns may well arise before Western leaders. By the way, from the same Japan to European ports along the Northern Sea Route is much closer than through the Suez Canal, not to mention going around the south of Africa.
This is called 'making an offer you can't refuse'.
What's the result? Here it seems to myself (I may be wrong) several birds killed with one stone:
1) tangible advantages for the so-called “Russia”: since Ukraine massively uses UAVs on the battlefield, assembled from components from China, there is a high degree of probability that the speed of their delivery will slow down and at the same time its cost will rise;
2)Prospective benefit: blocking traditional shipping routes with the transfer of cargo flow to the NSR will allow us to keep the cargo flow under control, and in the case of coordinated work with its ally in the axis of evil, communist China, if the latter reports the contents of containers (I’m sure it won’t mind it won’t hurt to do this), which is not a problem, since information about the cargo being sent and the consignee is reflected in the accompanying documentation.
How so-called 'russia' will use this information, you can build different versions🤔
